Financial Markets

In the past two weeks, the US equity market exhibited a repetitive behavior, gaping down on Monday, recovering during the week and then falling on Friday. This week the S&P500 fell 0.25% and
the NASDAQ
100 was flat. The small
cap
index (Russel 2000) was also essentially flat. Trading volumes were slightly higher than average.

The
metals were positive: gold
and silver gained 2.2% and 1.5%, respectively. Gold closed the week at
2860$, another all-time-high. Gold can continue the rally up to 3000$ in the next couple of weeks before correcting. Silver gained some strength lately but seems to be topping out at current levels – if it continues running up, the next resistance is at 34-35$/oz.

WTI fell to 71$/bbl, a short term support, but may fall down to 67$ in the near future.

Bitcoin
fell 1.7% and seems like it is going to continue trading in the range 91-109k$.

The
relative
strength of the US dollar (DXY) fell slightly this week (~108). The
EUR/USD is around 1.033$, the GBP/USD is at 1.239$, and the USD/JPY is at
151.39 JPY.

US M2 money supply at the date of 30th December 2024 was up by 0.4%.

The
national financial
conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 27th January 2025 loosened by 1.33%, which shows a continuous loosening of financial
conditions. Note that this indicator is
delayed by a week.

bond yields were down slightly this week, and now sit at 4.291% for the
2-year
and 4.493% for the 10-year.

The VIX rised on the beginning of the week, but then moderated to 16, a level that is close to the 200-week moving average, indicating a moderation in fear and average search for put
options from the part of investors/speculators.

Comment Section

Overall, the market is trading sideways and is looking more bearish than bullish – but we never know or try to guess. Looking at the chart of the main stock indices, it looks like we are watching a distribution event taking place, where lots of profit taking and de-risking is occurring while others are still buying – the result is small price variations and sideways trading near the top of a chart. Usually, a correction follows.

From here, the two possible scenarios are:

1) Economic expansion which supports increasing valuations and multiples. However, we a we are not seeing growth in the fundamentals of most companies. Revenue has topped out! Can the AI bubble inflate a bit more, supporting the markets? If it doesn’t, extended tech stock valuations will have to be corrected, which will push the overall markets down. Government support or tax cuts could help to extend the current situation and avoid a technical recession…

2) Sluggish economic growth and/or unemployment increasing in the coming quarters would create a more risk-averse attitude from companies, banks and investors, leading to less investment, reduction in consumer spending and more economic contraction. This would result in more aggressive central bank rate cuts and government stimulus.

We are nor bearish nor bullish. We can position to profit from high margin businesses, and keep some cash on the sidelines to participate in unexpected events, as usual.

The sequence of news regarding US tariff/trade war is just a distraction. It is too soon to fully understand its consequences. But one thing is for sure: the current US administration wants to reduce dependency on some trade partners. Period. Let’s try to take advantage of that!

Have a nice weekend, and good luck!!!

Financial Markets

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