Markets pushed higher despite rising bond yields, persistent inflation, and unresolved Middle East tensions driving energy prices up. With rate cuts delayed and volatility low, current optimism may be underestimating growing macro and geopolitical risks.
Powell Goes, Buffet Steps Down – a New Season Begins Read More »
Over the past few decades, passive investing has transformed from a niche strategy into one of the dominant forces in global financial markets. This article examines both the strengths of passive investing and the structural risks that may emerge as an increasing share of capital adopts this approach.
The Dangers of Passive Investing in Financial Markets Read More »
Stock markets hover along historic maximums, while oil prices remain close to 100$ per barrel. Fertilizer prices threaten agriculture. And a last minute drama at the White House.
The Long and Optimistic Market Peak Read More »
The stock market continued rallying and closed the week at fresh all-time-highs. S&P500 up, gold and silver up, WTI down to 81$, and yields lower. However, the US and Iran cease-fire was compromised and tensions may rise again…
Fragile Markets Rip to new All-Time-Highs Read More »
US and Iran fail to reach a deal after marathon peace talks in Pakistan. US stock markets, gold, and silver recovered this week. WTI, Brent lower, VIX lower. Are we up for a disappointment next week?
Iran Peace Talks Reach the End – For Now Read More »
Modern mortgages are not simply loans—they are transformed into securities, financed in global markets, and distributed across investors. This article explains how credit is created, securitized, and circulated in the financial system.
From Mortgages to Markets: How Credit Is Created, Packaged, and Sold Read More »
Liquidity is the hidden force driving financial markets, shaping asset prices, risk appetite, and economic cycles. This article explores how liquidity is created, measured, and transmitted across the global financial system.
Liquidity: The Hidden Driver of Markets Read More »
Transaction taxes like Belgium’s TOB shape capital flows, investor behavior, and market efficiency. This article explores how transaction-based taxation creates friction, influences investment decisions, and impacts global financial markets.
Transaction Taxes and Capital Friction: The Case of Belgium’s TOB Read More »
S&P and NASDAQ recovered 3.4% and 4% this week. Gold and Silver up, WTI up, dollar strength unchanged, bond yields lower, VIX dropped. War in the middle east escalates.
Markets Happily Rebound Read More »
This article reviews the limits of expectations-driven inflation, critiques the Phillips Curve, examines how central banks respond to those critiques, and presents historical episodes where high expectations failed to produce inflation.
Inflation Expectations: How Much Do They Really Matter? Read More »
Learn what causes inflation, how it is measured, and why price controls and rent controls often fail in modern economies.
What Causes Inflation? A Deep Dive Into Prices, Money, and the Economy Read More »
Markets fall as the conflict in the middle-east continues. The signs of private credit stress continue to worry, while central banks threaten to raise rates… Prepare for a liquidity crunch and an economic crisis in 2026-2027.
An Impending Energy and Economic Crisis Read More »
Explore the risks in private credit markets in 2026, including liquidity constraints, rising defaults, and investor redemptions.
Private Credit Risks in 2026: Liquidity, Defaults, and Hidden Risks Read More »
Learn how credit conditions, financial stress indicators, and credit spreads signal economic downturns before recessions begin.
Credit Conditions and Recessions Read More »
Learn how central banks and banks drive the business cycle through interest rates, credit creation, and monetary policy tightening and easing.
How Interest Rates Drive the Business Cycle Read More »
Learn how the yield curve works, why it inverts, and how it has predicted past recessions with real historical examples.
What Is the Yield Curve and Why It Predicts Recessions Read More »
Learn the 5 key indicators that predict a recession, including the yield curve, interest rates, and credit conditions. Understand the warning signs early.
How to Tell If a Recession Is Coming: 5 Key Indicators to Watch Read More »
Oil prices surge during geopolitical crises—but why? Learn how supply risks, inflation, and markets are all connected.
Why Oil Prices Spike During Geopolitical Crises Read More »
