Rui MR Pinto

News Summary For more than 212 straight trading days the 10-year yield have held below the three-month yield, a situation known as yield curve inversion. Such an inversion was a predictor of the last eight recessions. The apparent disconnect between the market’s warning and the surprisingly resilient economy shows how much uncertainty has persisted since […]

News Summary On Wednesday, Philip Jefferson took the oath of office as the Federal Reserve Board’s new vice chair, as policymakers gear up for an interest-rate-setting meeting next week. Jefferson, who will be the second Black person to hold the vice chair post, will continue to hold a separate term as governor, which runs through 2036.

News Summary   The week started with the Typhoon Haikui hiting Taiwan and China. In Taiwan, more than 7000 people were evacuated from high-risk areas, and at least 40 people were injured in the storm. Now, a brief note about the ageing government representatives in the US. The top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell, 81, has

Summary China’s State Council rolled out a trillion yuan package in economic stimulus. The latest $146 billion in assistance will target infrastructure, property, and private business. The initiatives are expected to cover a range of targets the government has identified as in need of support. Among the targets were state banks that were given an

Summary This week, the spotlight was the FED chair speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. No news…they are data dependent and we’ll have to wait. The speech was neutral, in my opinion.   In the US, new orders for manufactured durable goods plummeted by 5.2% in July 2023, the sharpest decrease since the aftermath of

Summary   China’s industrial production only grew 3.7% year-on-year compared to the expected 4.4%, while retail sales posted an even bigger miss, coming in 2% lower than forecasts at 2.5%. What’s more is that less than an hour before the release of the July data, China’s central bank cut a key interest rate by 15bps

Summary and Comment In July 2022, Ukraine and Russia made a deal that allowed the resumption of vital grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports, easing a global food crisis sparked by the war. However, last month The grain deal expired (on 17 July 2023). Since then, Russia has launched a series of air attacks