Week-on-week,
the main stock market
indices were negative, with the S&P500 losing 0.8% and the NASDAQ 100 down by 2.5%. The RUSSEL 2000 was up by 3.4%. The beginning of the week was negative, but on Thursday and Friday, many stocks started recovering.

The
price of Gold is only slightly lower (-0.5%)
and is around 2380$ per ounce. The next support is at around
2300$, but if gold breaks this level, it
could fall until approximately 2150$. Silver dropped 4.4%
for the week but is still holding above the 28$ level, which should be
short term support for the metal.

The barrel of WTI fell 2.8% and sits around 76$ per barrel. It is close to the 75$ support level. WTI has been trading on a range that is narrowing. Thus, during August we might see a bigger move either to the upside (above 82) or to the downside (below 75).

Bitcoin fell 1.3% and is around 67300$. Bitcoin
seems to be on a downward trend with the next supports around 60000 and
53000$.

The relative
strength of the US dollar (DXY) is unchanged, and has been in the range of 103 to 107 since April 2024.

June USM2 money supply was up by 0.3%.

Financial
conditions (NFCI) data has not been updated this week.

US

bond yields are down for the week, and now sit at 4.39% for the 2-year and
4.19% for the 10-year. Although the yield curve is still inverted, the short-term rates are starting to fall faster, which can lead to the uninversion of the curve – usually associated with the beginning of a recession and a market downturn.

Comment Section

The main US stock market indices may have finished a small correction and have shown some signs of recovery on Friday. The continuing upward move on the Russel corroborates that some money
has been flowing into more value-oriented
stocks.

Next week will be rich in terms of earnings calls, namely Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, EXXON Mobil, Procter and Gamble, AMD, and many others. If earnings miss or the language used is very cautionary, the correction may continue. 

Furthermore, on Wednesday the 31st of July we have the US Federal Reserve meeting, with the interest rate decision and the press conference which may lean of future FED action regarding short-term interest rates. Now, the market is expecting a rate cut in September, so let’s see what Jerome Powell says to the press.

Expect a very volatile week, which can determine the direction of the markets over the summer!

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