Week in Review: 25-29 November 2024

Financial Markets

For
the week,
the main stock market
indices were up, with the S&P500 gaining 1.1% and
the NASDAQ
100 0.7% in the green. The small cap index (Russel 2000) gained 1.1%.

Precious
metals are on the lower range of the current trading channel. Gold and silver fell 2.4%
and 2.3%, respectively. The metals need to defend the current levels, otherwise we must turn bearish.

WTI fell 4.2% and is holding the 68$ level. Oil will likely trade sideways in
the near future (67-72$).

Bitcoin is around 97000$ and seems like it will have some trouble going above 100k…

The
relative
strength of the US dollar (DXY) hit resistance and fell to ~106. The
EUR/USD is around 1.05$, the GBP/USD is at 1.27$, and the USD/JPY is at
149.7 JPY.

US M2 money supply at the date of 28th October 2024 was up by 0.42%.

The
national financial
conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 18th November 2024 loosened by 5.1% and doesn’t translate signs of financial stress in
the markets.

US

bond yields fell considerably this week, and now sit at 4.163% for the
2-year
and 4.180% for the 10-year.

The
VIX fell to 13.5 and can continue falling until ~12. This means the markets are not
very fearful and investors/speculators are not searching for put
options.

Comment Section

We made it to December! The stock markets are looking a bit extended and would benefit from a 5-10% correction. However, given the seasonality, we can expect a mild correction until the year end. But it is important to keep looking for fundamental or market psychology changes.

Take care, and good luck.

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