Week in Review: 4-8 November 2024 – Trump Wins!!!

Financial Markets

For
the week,
the main stock market
indices were UP, with the S&P500 gaining 4.7% and
the NASDAQ
100 5.4% in the green. The small cap index (Russel 2000) got pumped by 8.7%.

Precious
metals are retracing a bit these days. Gold and silver fell 1.9%
and 3.5%, respectively. Recently, silver broke below 32$ and is now
probably going towards the 30$ level.

WTI is around the 70$ level, which is short-term support. Oil will likely trade sideways in the near future (68-72$).

Bitcoin
spiked 17% this week, breaking above the 74k level. It can re-test this level again before continuing to the upside (or breaking back below!).

The
relative
strength of the US dollar (DXY) was up by 0.6%. The
EUR/USD is around 1.07$, the GBP/USD is at 1.29$, and the USD/JPY is at 152.6 JPY.

US M2 money supply at the date of 30th September 2024 was up by 0.38%.

The
national financial
conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 28th October 2024 tightened by 1.4% and doesn’t translate considerable signs of financial stress in
the markets (yet).

US

bond yields went up this week, especially on the long-end, and now sit at 4.256% for the
2-year
and 4.308% for the 10-year.

The
VIX plummeted 32% as the US stock markets rallied. The VIX is back to the 15 level. This means that put option sellers need to reload their weapons and prepare for the next wave of volatility, which may come in a few weeks.

Comment Section

Finally, Donald J. Trump is back!!!
 
The markets rallied, but are now getting a bit over-extended and should correct. The earnings season has revealed stalling revenue and profits all across the board. So, fundamentally, there is no reason for valuations to go up in the stock market. Furthermore, US bond yields have been rising, likely due to fears of re-igniting inflation. We interpret this as a moderation in appetite towards risk assets, thus this week (or next week), the stock market direction should be down! It can be just a cooling down of excitement or a slightly bigger correction (which would also be healthy).

Take care, and good luck.

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Channel: Insider News

 

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