Iran Peace Talks Reach the End – For Now

Market Recap: 6 – 10 April 2026

Review of Financial Markets

US Stock Market

The markets popped in the middle of the week, with optimism regarding a cease-fire and the start of negotiations in the middle-east. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ 100 recovered 3.6% and 4.5%, respectively. The small cap index (Russell 2000) was up by 4.6%. Trading volumes were average.

Commodities

Gold and Silver continued their recovery, gaining 1.5% and 3.9% for the week and currently sitting around 4750$/oz and 76$/oz, respectively. After months of a bull run, the metals are now consolidating around quite strong values.

WTI crude oil fell approximately 15%, down to 95$ per barrel, on hopes of the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin gained 3.8% this week. Bitcoin may trade in the range 66 – 74 k$ in the near future, unless overall liquidity starts to tighten.

US Dollar, Money Supply

The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) fell to 98. The EUR/USD is around 1.172$, the GBP/USD is at 1.346$, and the USD/JPY is at 159.28 JPY.

US M2 money supply in February was at 22.67T$, still on a growth trend, showing a continuous expansion in the money supply since December 2023. If the money supply starts to contract, it will be a confirmation of the credit cycle reaching a turning point.

The national financial conditions index (NFCI) released on 30th of March 2026 shows a 1.8% tightening in financial conditions. Financial conditions will likely continue on a tightening trend as long as the international geopolitical and energy situation remains unstable. Note that this indicator is delayed by two weeks. Positive numbers in the NFCI mean tighter financial conditions, while negative numbers indicate looser financial conditions.

Bonds and Options

US bond yields fell slightly on the short end while rising on the long-end. Yields now sit at 3.799% for the 2-year and 4.9 for the 10-year. Long-term growth and inflation expectations are at 4.909% (30-year US bonds). The yield curve has uninverted since a year ago – a typical sign of an impending recession.

The VIX fell massively and closed the week at 19, which may be an under-pricing of volatility and excessive optimism. If options sellers believe this is just the beginning of a bigger correction, then this is not the moment to sell puts – the time will come! However, if you see any very specific opportunities plus a juicy option premium, go ahead!

Weekly Commentary

The conflict across the Middle East continues to ripple through the news outlets and the markets. News of peace talks bring hype – while news of escalation or failed negotiations bring the pessimism back out. This environment is great for insiders who have access to information a few hours before the rest of the world.

The latest news is that after a 21h-marathon, the peace talks between the US and Iran have ceased. After a marathon peace negotiation, Vice President JD Vance left Pakistan late Saturday without a deal with Iran and declared that the United States had offered its “final and best offer” to Tehran. Vance told a press conference that American officials negotiated in good faith for 21 hours, and now it is up to Iran to decide whether to accept the final terms approved by President Donald Trump. “We leave here with a very simple proposal, a method of understanding that is our final and best offer,” Vance said. “We will see if the Iranians accept it.”

The US president, Donald Trump, has not yet formally commented on the breakdown of peace talks with Iran in Islamabad.

Meanwhile, the stock market remains expensive, oil remains expensive, and precious metals are not cheap. In this market, we must search intensively and carefully for any opportunities, and keep some powder dry for rainy days.

We don’t predict markets — we track liquidity, risk, and the forces shaping the cycle.

Good luck, stay prepared.