Fragile Markets Rip to new All-Time-Highs

Market Recap: 13 – 17 April 2026

Review of Financial Markets

US Stock Market

The markets continued rallying with optimism regarding the cease-fire in the middle-east. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ 100 recovered 4.5% and 6.2%, respectively. The small cap index (Russell 2000) was up by 5.4%. Trading volumes were average.

Commodities

Gold and Silver continued their recovery, gaining 1.9% and 6.5% for the week and currently sitting around 4837$/oz and 81$/oz, respectively. After months of a bull run, the metals are now consolidating.

WTI crude oil fell approximately 12%, down to 84$ per barrel, on hopes of the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin gained 7.1% this week. Bitcoin may trade in the range 72-84 k$ in the near future, unless overall liquidity starts to tighten.

US Dollar, Money Supply

The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) fell to 98. The EUR/USD is around 1.176$, the GBP/USD is at 1.352$, and the USD/JPY is at 158.62 JPY.

US M2 money supply in February was at 22.67T$, still on a growth trend, showing a continuous expansion in the money supply since December 2023. If the money supply starts to contract, it will be a confirmation of the credit cycle reaching a turning point.

The national financial conditions index (NFCI) released on the 6th of April 2026 showed a 1.5% loosening in financial conditions. The trend in financial conditions reversed and is now loosening as the international geopolitical situation relaxed during the week. Note that this indicator is delayed by two weeks. Positive numbers in the NFCI mean tighter financial conditions, while negative numbers indicate looser financial conditions.

Bonds and Options

US bond yields fell on all maturities. Yields now sit at 3.706% for the 2-year and 4.248 for the 10-year. Long-term growth and inflation expectations are at 4.885% (30-year US bonds). The yield curve has uninverted since a year ago – a typical sign of an impending recession.

The VIX fell a bit more and closed the week at 17.5, which may be an under-pricing of volatility and excessive optimism. If options sellers believe this is just the beginning of a bigger correction, then this is not the moment to sell puts – the time will come! However, if you see any very specific opportunities plus a juicy option premium, go ahead!

Weekly Commentary

The conflict across the Middle East continues to confuse the world. This week, it was the consecutive new of opening and closing of the strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump said Sunday that Iran had violated the ceasefire agreement with the U.S. by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and he repeated threats to attack Iranian energy infrastructure unless it accepts a deal to end the war.

Petrochemicals have emerged as the center of oil demand destruction stemming from the war in the Middle East, with naphtha, LPG, and ethane posting the clearest losses of any petroleum products, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Global demand for the three feedstocks in second-quarter 2026 is now estimated to be 1.5 million b/d lower than forecast in the agency’s February report.

IEA said the petrochemical sector has responded especially quickly because it is dominated by a relatively small number of large, price-sensitive producers that are closely tied to global trade flows. The most severe disruption has been concentrated in the Middle East and Asia, though the effects are expected to spread more broadly across global producers.

Taking advantage of the market hype, Elon Musk prepares the biggest IPO in history. SpaceX outlined details of its highly anticipated IPO at a meeting with ‌its team of bankers Monday night, telling them it plans to earmark a large portion of shares for retail investors and will host 1,500 of them at an event in June following the IPO roadshow launch, according to two people familiar with the matter. “Retail is going to be a critical part of this and a bigger part than any IPO in history,” Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said during the virtual meeting. The meeting brought together the full syndicate for the first time as part of the process for what is expected to be the biggest initial public offering ever as the rocket maker seeks to raise $75 billion, valuing SpaceX at as much as $1.75 trillion.

Given the recent developments, we are not convinced about the last 2-week rally in stocks and we believe it is extremely fragile. Stocks remain expensive, oil is still expensive, and precious metals are not cheap. In this market, we must search intensively and carefully for any opportunities, and keep some powder dry for rainy days.

We don’t predict markets — we track liquidity, risk, and the forces shaping the cycle.

Good luck, stay prepared.