The Long and Optimistic Market Peak

Market Recap: 20 – 24 April 2026

Review of Financial Markets

US Stock Market

The markets have slowed after last week’s monster rally. Still, the S&P500 and the NASDAQ 100 were up by 0.6% and 2.4%, respectively. The small cap index (Russell 2000) was up by 0.3%. Trading volumes were average.

Commodities

Gold and Silver continue consolidating around current levels. The price of gold and silver fell 2.7% and 6.3% for the week, respectively.

WTI crude oil rose by approximately 13%, up to 94.9$ per barrel, as the Strait of Hormuz fails to fully re-open.

Bitcoin gained 5.4% this week. Bitcoin may trade in the range 72-84 k$ in the near future, unless overall liquidity starts to tighten.

US Dollar, Money Supply

The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) went slightly up to 98.5. The EUR/USD is around 1.172$, the GBP/USD is at 1.353$, and the USD/JPY is at 159.35 JPY.

US M2 money supply in February was at 22.67T$, still on a growth trend, showing a continuous expansion in the money supply since December 2023. If the money supply starts to contract, it will be a confirmation of the credit cycle reaching a turning point.

The national financial conditions index (NFCI) released on the 13th of April 2026 showed a 3.8% loosening in financial conditions. The trend in financial conditions reversed as traders price in a quick resolution of the middle-east conflict. Note that this indicator is delayed by two weeks. Positive numbers in the NFCI mean tighter financial conditions, while negative numbers indicate looser financial conditions.

Bonds and Options

US bond yields rose on all maturities. Yields now sit at 3.785% for the 2-year and 4.306 for the 10-year. Long-term growth and inflation expectations are at 4.912% (30-year US bonds). The yield curve has uninverted since a year ago – a typical sign of an impending recession.

The VIX didn’t spike during the last days and closed the week at 18.7, which may be an under-pricing of volatility and excessive optimism. If options sellers believe there is the risk of a bigger correction, then this is not the moment to sell puts – the time will come! However, if you see any very specific opportunities plus a juicy option premium, go ahead!

Weekly Commentary

The cease-fire in the Middle East continues, but so does the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The traffic through the strait is only ~8% of the normal values (https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/)!

Only five ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours, far below the pre-war average of 140 daily crossings. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has almost come to a halt, with only five vessels passing through the key waterway in 24 hours, according to Friday shipping data. The figure is a fraction of the roughly 140 ships that passed through the strait each day before the Iran war began on February 28. The sharp slowdown follows Iran’s seizure of two container ships this week, while the United States continues to blockade Iranian ports. One of the five vessels was an Iranian oil products tanker. Hapag-Lloyd said one of its container ships had also cleared the strait, while the Comoros-flagged supertanker Helga arrived at an offshore oil export terminal at Basra port in southern Iraq on Friday. The narrow waterway at the entrance to the Gulf remains one of the world’s most important energy routes, but shipowners are reluctant to resume normal operations without stronger guarantees. Read more here: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/world/40065487

As the Middle East conflict continues, further escalation of fertilizer price and availability issues is the latest pressure added to the farm economy, adding immense stress to an already bleak outlook for corn farmers in 2026. More and more, farmers are encountering volatile fertilizer markets, along with uncertainty about the availability of essential fertilizers – not only for 2026, but increasingly for 2027. Spot and futures prices for key fertilizers spiked immediately at the start of the conflict, reflecting the Middle East’s outsized role in global trade: the region accounts for an estimated 40-50% of international seaborne fertilizer trade of urea, and one-third of total global seaborne fertilizer volumes pass through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. retail prices initially lagged the futures trade, but the prices farmers pay have since increased rapidly. While still below 2022 price peaks, affordability is worsening as fertilizer prices rise relative to corn prices. On a “currency of corn” basis, growers now need a record 185 bushels of corn to buy one ton of urea, despite urea still retailing below peak 2022 levels, because corn is around $4.50 per bushel today, versus more than $8.00 per bushel then. Read more: https://ncga.com/stay-informed/media/the-corn-economy/article/2026/04/future-fertilizer-fears-farmers-say-fertilizer-risk-intensifies-in-2027

As a last-minute note, some more Donald Trump news! A man armed with guns and knives stormed the lobby outside a high-profile journalists’ dinner attended by President Donald Trump and multiple senior U.S. leaders on Saturday night, rushing toward the ballroom before Secret Service agents swarmed him and took him into custody. The president was uninjured and was hustled away.

The wrap up for the week is that no significant geopolitical developments have occurred that justify the stock market optimism. This is the perfect market to trade on insider news – unfortunately, we don’t have it. Thus, the recommendation is to be careful and a bit conservative. The higher energy costs will eventually trickle down to basic goods and food, and that will be a real impact on everyone’s daily lives. Additionally, over the next quarters discretionary spending may fall on many sectors, including services, and the overall economy may suffer. We are not bearish nor bullish – we just think that AI cannot save the global economy from an energy and food crisis.

Repeating last week’s closing sentence: in this market, we must search intensively and carefully for any opportunities, and keep some powder dry for rainy days. It would also be a good time to start working on your vegetable garden!

We don’t predict markets — we track liquidity, risk, and the forces shaping the cycle.

Good luck, stay prepared.